Bunny Hills

Methodology

What this is

A tracking tool: for each US bill or amendment with a China nexus, we show where it is in the legislative process, how likely it is to pass, and which listed shares it might influence and in which direction. It is an indicator you interpret — not investment advice, not a return forecast, not a recommendation.

Relevance & asset impact

Relevance level L0–L3 measures how directly the text engages China. China asset impact 0–5 estimates how much it could move China-related asset prices. They are independent: a bill can be clearly China-related yet barely move prices, or reach China only through a multi-country basket yet hit hard.

Passage outlook

The pass / advance probabilities come from our own logistic-regression model trained on the complete 118th Congress (bills with known outcomes), using publicly available signals: sponsor party, cosponsorship and its bipartisanship, companion bills, committee referrals, and must-pass-vehicle status. The "for / against" factors are read directly from the model. It is a legislative likelihood — strongest at predicting committee survival, weaker at final enactment (which is hard for everyone). This allows you to track the exact momentum of a bill as it moves through the grueling committee and chamber-vote process, filtering out political theater from serious policy risks.

Secondary signals

Beyond the two pinned axes, each bill carries directional secondary scores. Their scales were codified after the fact (not fixed at scoring time), so treat them as context, not precision:

PRC retaliation risk
  • low = symbolic/diffuse, unlikely material response
  • medium = targeted measure Beijing would protest and may counter narrowly
  • high = touches core PRC interests (Taiwan sovereignty, sweeping decoupling) → likely material countermeasures. Not monotonic in market impact — a Taiwan resolution can be low-impact but high-risk.
Hawkishness

Political/rhetorical stance, independent of market impact:

  • 1 = neutral
  • 2 = mild concern (monitoring, reports)
  • 3 = assertive (conditional restrictions)
  • 4 = confrontational (sanctions, bans on named firms)
  • 5 = maximalist (decoupling, PNTR withdrawal). A loud bill can still have low market impact — the gap is the signal.

Restriction flags

A share is flagged only when an analyst-verified match places it (or its issuer) on a US restriction list, from public-domain US-government sources. Low-confidence name matches are not shown. The three lists:

1260H
DoD §1260H — Chinese Military Companies — An annual US Department of Defense list (mandated by §1260H of the FY2021 NDAA) of companies it identifies as "Chinese military companies" operating directly or indirectly in the United States. Listing is reputational/strategic and increasingly carries procurement and investment consequences. Source: US DoD / Federal Register (public domain).
NS-CMIC
NS-CMIC — Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies — A US Treasury (OFAC) list of "Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies." US persons are prohibited from buying or selling the publicly traded securities of listed companies — a direct capital-markets restriction. Source: US Treasury OFAC (public domain).
EntityList
Commerce Entity List — The US Commerce Department (BIS) Entity List names foreign parties subject to export-licensing restrictions; US suppliers generally need a license (frequently denied) to ship to them, constraining access to US technology and components. Source: US Commerce / BIS (public domain).

Affected shares are sector-level

A bill maps to one or more sectors; the listed names are that sector's roster, ranked by market cap. Treat them as a sector-wide indicator, not a claim about any single company. Each sector row carries:

Direction
negative = pressures Chinese-asset values (a restriction, ban, or sanction) · positive = benefits the US/ally or non-China leg · mixed = both · neutral = no clear sign. 'negative' is informational, not a sell signal.
Strength 1–5
A per-sector refinement of the headline impact: 1 = marginal, 5 = very strong effect on this sector's China-related names. Shown only for precise (model-read) mappings; blank on coarse domain fallbacks.
Precise vs coarse
Precise mappings come from a model that read the bill's full text (these carry a strength score); coarse mappings are a domain-based fallback (no strength).

Data: Congress.gov (public domain) · congress-legislators (CC0) · US-government restriction lists (public domain).