Bunny Hills
L1 3.0 supply_chain hr1-119

One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), 2025

Why China-relevant: 'specified foreign entity' expressly includes 'an entity identified as a Chinese military company operating in the United States in accordance with section 1260H of the... NDAA for FY2021' -- an explicitly-Chinese entity list (= L1).

Sponsor: Arrington, Jodey C. (R-TX) · 0 cosponsors

Path to becoming law

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed House
  4. Passed Senate
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead

Legislative timeline — dated actions so far

  1. Filed
  2. Passed chamber (vote) [house]
  3. Passed chamber (vote) [senate]
  4. Sent to President
  5. Passed chamber (vote) [house]
  6. Became law
Stage: Became law

Resolved. Model had estimated 17% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsored by a member of the majority party
  • − No cosponsors

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk medium Hawkishness 1–5 4

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

EV & Battery negative strong (4/5) precise 486 names

Denies clean-energy/battery production credits to entities tied to Chinese military companies and covered nations, pressuring China-linked battery/clean-energy supply chains.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
300750.SZ 宁德时代 CATL (Contemporary Amperex) 1260H
002594.SZ 比亚迪 BYD
300274.SZ 阳光电源 SUNGROW POWER SUPPLY
000338.SZ 潍柴动力 WEICHAI POWER
600930.SS 华电新能 华电新能
0175.HK 吉利汽车 Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
601985.SS 中国核电 CNNP
9973.HK 奇瑞汽车 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.
002460.SZ 赣锋锂业 Ganfeng Lithium
001289.SZ 龙源电力 CHINA LONGYUAN
+476 more
Rare Earth Materials positive moderate (3/5) precise 178 names

Favors ex-China critical-mineral supply by restricting China-linked credit eligibility.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
601899.SS 紫金矿业 Zijin Mining
603993.SS 洛阳钼业 CMOC
2259.HK 紫金黄金国际 ZIJIN GOLD INTERNATIONAL COMPANY LIMITED
002379.SZ 宏桥控股 Hongqiao Holdings
601600.SS 中国铝业 CHALCO
600111.SS 北方稀土 China Northern Rare Earth
000657.SZ 中钨高新 CHINA TUNGSTEN HIG
001280.SZ 中国铀业 中国铀业
600362.SS 江西铜业 JCCL
600547.SS 山东黄金 sd-gold
+168 more