Bunny Hills
L1 4.0 amendment samdt893-118

samdt893-118

Amendment to: FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

Why China-relevant: PRESUMPTION OF DENIAL FOR LICENSES FOR EXPORT, REEXPORT, OR IN-COUNTRY TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY TO END USERS IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Sponsor: Rubio, Marco

Timeline

  1. Filed
  2. Passed chamber (vote) [senate]vehicle

Vehicle: FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead did not advance

Stage: Died in the 118th Congress

Resolved. Model had estimated 18% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsored by a member of the majority party
  • − No cosponsors

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk medium Hawkishness 1–5 5

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

Semiconductors negative strong (4/5) precise 186 names

Broad technology-license denial would affect advanced tech transfer to PRC end users.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
688981.SS 中芯国际 SMIC (STAR) 1260HNS-CMIC
688256.SS 寒武纪 CAMBRICON EntityList
688041.SS 海光信息 HYGON
002371.SZ 北方华创 NAURA EntityList
688347.SS 华虹公司 H-GRACE
688820.SS 盛合晶微 SJ Semi
603986.SS 兆易创新 GigaDevice
688795.SS 摩尔线程-U 摩尔线程-U
688008.SS 澜起科技 Montage Technology
688012.SS 中微公司 AMEC
+176 more
China ADRs (Broad) negative strong (4/5) precise 286 names

Major export-control tightening can pressure China tech equities.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
9988.HK 阿里巴巴-W Alibaba Group Holding Limited
9618.HK 京东集团-SW JD.com, Inc.
9961.HK 携程集团-S Trip.com Group Limited
2057.HK 中通快递-W ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
PDD 拼多多 PDD Holdings (ADR)
9987.HK 百胜中国 Yum China Holdings, Inc.
1179.HK 华住集团-S H World Group Limited
9901.HK 新东方-S NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.
2076.HK BOSS直聘-W KANZHUN LIMITED
9896.HK 名创优品 MINISO Group Holding Limited
+276 more
5G / Telecom negative moderate (3/5) precise 131 names

Technology transfer controls implicate telecom and connected strategic sectors.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
600941.SS 中国移动 CHINA MOBILE NS-CMIC
300308.SZ 中际旭创 ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT
300502.SZ 新易盛 EOPTOLINK
601728.SS 中国电信 China Telecom NS-CMIC
601869.SS 长飞光纤 YOFC
000063.SZ 中兴通讯 ZTE
600487.SS 亨通光电 HTGD
002281.SZ 光迅科技 ACCELINK
300442.SZ 润泽科技 RANGE TECHNOLOGY
600522.SS 中天科技 ZTT
+121 more