Bunny Hills
L1 5.0 amendment samdt3054-118

samdt3054-118

Amendment to: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

Why China-relevant: normal trade relations treatment shall not apply pursuant to section 101 of that Act to the products of the People's Republic of China

Sponsor: Cotton, Tom

Timeline

  1. Filed

Vehicle: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead did not advance

Stage: Died in the 118th Congress

Resolved. Model had estimated 18% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsored by a member of the majority party
  • − No cosponsors

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk high Hawkishness 1–5 5

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

China ADRs (Broad) negative very strong (5/5) precise 286 names

Ending normal trade relations would broadly impair China-US goods trade and raise cross-asset retaliation risk.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
9988.HK 阿里巴巴-W Alibaba Group Holding Limited
9618.HK 京东集团-SW JD.com, Inc.
9961.HK 携程集团-S Trip.com Group Limited
2057.HK 中通快递-W ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
PDD 拼多多 PDD Holdings (ADR)
9987.HK 百胜中国 Yum China Holdings, Inc.
1179.HK 华住集团-S H World Group Limited
9901.HK 新东方-S NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.
2076.HK BOSS直聘-W KANZHUN LIMITED
9896.HK 名创优品 MINISO Group Holding Limited
+276 more
EV & Battery negative strong (4/5) precise 486 names

Broad tariff/trade status withdrawal would pressure Chinese manufacturing exporters, including battery/EV supply chains.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
300750.SZ 宁德时代 CATL (Contemporary Amperex) 1260H
002594.SZ 比亚迪 BYD
300274.SZ 阳光电源 SUNGROW POWER SUPPLY
000338.SZ 潍柴动力 WEICHAI POWER
600930.SS 华电新能 华电新能
0175.HK 吉利汽车 Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
601985.SS 中国核电 CNNP
9973.HK 奇瑞汽车 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.
002460.SZ 赣锋锂业 Ganfeng Lithium
001289.SZ 龙源电力 CHINA LONGYUAN
+476 more
Semiconductors negative moderate (3/5) precise 186 names

Wide China trade restrictions would add uncertainty for technology supply chains.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
688981.SS 中芯国际 SMIC (STAR) 1260HNS-CMIC
688256.SS 寒武纪 CAMBRICON EntityList
688041.SS 海光信息 HYGON
002371.SZ 北方华创 NAURA EntityList
688347.SS 华虹公司 H-GRACE
688820.SS 盛合晶微 SJ Semi
603986.SS 兆易创新 GigaDevice
688795.SS 摩尔线程-U 摩尔线程-U
688008.SS 澜起科技 Montage Technology
688012.SS 中微公司 AMEC
+176 more