Bunny Hills
L1 2.0 amendment samdt2660-118

samdt2660-118

Amendment to: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

Why China-relevant: impose sanctions with respect to any military or nonmilitary entities owned, controlled, or acting at the direction of the Government of the PRC or the Chinese Communist Party

Sponsor: Risch, James E.

Timeline

  1. Filed

Vehicle: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead did not advance

Stage: Died in the 118th Congress

Resolved. Model had estimated 18% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsored by a member of the majority party
  • − No cosponsors

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk medium Hawkishness 1–5 4

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

China ADRs (Broad) negative modest (2/5) precise 286 names

The measure plans broad PRC sanctions but does not itself impose them.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
9988.HK 阿里巴巴-W Alibaba Group Holding Limited
9618.HK 京东集团-SW JD.com, Inc.
9961.HK 携程集团-S Trip.com Group Limited
2057.HK 中通快递-W ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
PDD 拼多多 PDD Holdings (ADR)
9987.HK 百胜中国 Yum China Holdings, Inc.
1179.HK 华住集团-S H World Group Limited
9901.HK 新东方-S NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.
2076.HK BOSS直聘-W KANZHUN LIMITED
9896.HK 名创优品 MINISO Group Holding Limited
+276 more
Defense / Taiwan negative modest (2/5) precise 6 names

Taiwan-contingency sanctions planning raises geopolitical risk premium.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
2330.TW None TSMC
BA None Boeing
GD None General Dynamics
LMT None Lockheed Martin
NOC None Northrop Grumman
RTX None RTX Corp
Rare Earth Materials negative marginal (1/5) precise 178 names

It identifies rare earth dependence as leverage but only for strategy/reporting.

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
601899.SS 紫金矿业 Zijin Mining
603993.SS 洛阳钼业 CMOC
2259.HK 紫金黄金国际 ZIJIN GOLD INTERNATIONAL COMPANY LIMITED
002379.SZ 宏桥控股 Hongqiao Holdings
601600.SS 中国铝业 CHALCO
600111.SS 北方稀土 China Northern Rare Earth
000657.SZ 中钨高新 CHINA TUNGSTEN HIG
001280.SZ 中国铀业 中国铀业
600362.SS 江西铜业 JCCL
600547.SS 山东黄金 sd-gold
+168 more