samdt2163-118
Amendment to: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)
Why China-relevant: the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party must understand that initiating such an invasion will result in catastrophic economic and financial consequences for the People's Republic of China
Timeline
- Filed
Vehicle: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)
- Introduced
- Passed committee
- Passed Senate
- Passed House
- Sent to President
- Became law
done next step still ahead did not advance
Resolved. Model had estimated 18% to become law
- + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
- + Sponsored by a member of the majority party
- − No cosponsors
Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.
Signals — secondary, directional
Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.
Shares that might be influenced
Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.
Conditional sanctions, delisting/trading bans, and import restrictions would be severe for Chinese equities if triggered.
| Ticker | Name (Local) | Name (EN) | Restriction Lists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | |
| 9618.HK | 京东集团-SW | JD.com, Inc. | |
| 9961.HK | 携程集团-S | Trip.com Group Limited | |
| 2057.HK | 中通快递-W | ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | |
| PDD | 拼多多 | PDD Holdings (ADR) | |
| 9987.HK | 百胜中国 | Yum China Holdings, Inc. | |
| 1179.HK | 华住集团-S | H World Group Limited | |
| 9901.HK | 新东方-S | NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. | |
| 2076.HK | BOSS直聘-W | KANZHUN LIMITED | |
| 9896.HK | 名创优品 | MINISO Group Holding Limited |
Financial institutions affiliated with the CCP or PRC government are explicit targets.
| Ticker | Name (Local) | Name (EN) | Restriction Lists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 601939.SS | 建设银行 | CCB | |
| 601398.SS | 工商银行 | ICBC | |
| 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | HSBC Holdings | |
| 601288.SS | 农业银行 | AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA | |
| 601988.SS | 中国银行 | Bank of China | |
| 601318.SS | 中国平安 | Ping An Insurance | |
| 601628.SS | 中国人寿 | China Life | |
| 600036.SS | 招商银行 | CMB | |
| 1299.HK | 友邦保险 | AIA Group Limited | |
| 601658.SS | 邮储银行 | PSBC |